A surge in its pork output in 2021 caused margins to collapse to record lows, slashing the sector's appetite for soymeal feed. Hog production margins will be a key determinant of final soy demand in China next year. Europe, Mexico, Argentina, Egypt and Thailand are the next five largest importers, according to the USDA, but collectively buy only a third of China's total.
exporters will not be able to find a single large buyer to replace it. With China expected to account for nearly 60% of all soybean imports this season, U.S. That would mark a more than four-fold rise from the 1.35 million tonnes during the first quarter of 2021. cargoes, but Brazilian shipments are expected to rise sharply during January-March to over 6 million tonnes, according to Mysteel's Zou. "Our window is closing."Ĭhina's soybean arrivals in November-December will mainly be U.S. Brazil's been wedging into our export window a little more every year," the exporter said.
"It's been a little disappointing from a U.S. Brazilian soybeans are around $520 per tonne FOB, with freight of around $60 per tonne, he said. January soybean shipments from the Gulf Coast were offered around $500 per tonne FOB late last month, with an additional $78 or $80 per tonne for freight to China. "Brazilian beans are just cheaper, and price is king," said an Asia-based trader with a top trading house.Ĭhinese soybean importers have nearly completed December purchases, and are now filling January and February needs just as the Brazilian export season ramps up, according to a U.S. soybeans shipped out of the Pacific Northwest for February delivery are at about 500 yuan ($78.49) per tonne, compared with 684 yuan for Brazilian beans, according to Mysteel. In addition, Brazilian soybeans offer better crush margins for Chinese soy processors, thanks to higher average protein levels in Brazilian soybeans. soybeans have also faced price headwinds, with export offers trading fairly close to those out of Brazil, where freight costs to China are lower. "American beans won't have such opportunity in the coming months, as planting of Brazilian beans is fast this year, meaning there will be ample beans to be shipped to China in the first quarter of 2022," said Zou Honglin, analyst with the agriculture division of Mysteel, a China-based commodities consultancy. soybean shipments to China in 2020-21 were the strongest since the 2016-17 season, thanks in part to a delayed start to the 2021 Brazil export season that helped extend U.S. market share was squeezed by Brazilian beans," Bai said. "Then there was the impact from Hurricane Ida. Crush margins were low and demand was not good at that time," said Bai Jie, analyst with COFCO futures. (soybean) export season had a bad start this year.
loadings picked up sharply in October to over 10 million tonnes, according to Refinitiv data, but now face the prospect of an earlier-than-usual start to the 2022 export season out of Brazil, the world largest soy producer. harvest window, blunting China's appetite for U.S.
Department of Agriculture data.įurther, the main drivers of China's soy demand - crushing and hog production margins - hit a soft patch right during the peak U.S.
ports for several days in September - resulted in an 81% drop in China-bound shipments that month from the year before, according to U.S. soybean deals during the post-harvest window from September through December.īut this year the aftermath of Hurricane Ida - which hobbled crop-loading at key U.S.
Mostly derived from the language barrier, the outlandish comedy that ensues was a constant source of hysterical laughter that was beloved by over 17 million viewers and became one of Britain’s longest running, most successful TV shows.More than half of those sales tend to go to China, which in turn makes around 70% of its U.S. This hilarious British sitcom stars Barry Evans as Jeremy Brown, the eager teacher of an English evening class for adult foreigners.